Security in Afghanistan: new approaches for old challenges
Study Guide: Security in Afghanistan
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A brief history of the region
The position of Afghanistan makes it a strategic location from a geopolitical point of view. It offers a lot of advantages in controlling the rest of Southern Asia, but it also grants passage through Central Asia. The control of the region has therefore always been desirable for many factions, ever since ancient times. The first major western attempt to occupy Afghanistan came in the 19th century: Great Britain famously attempted to assert their control over the region, without much success. In the 20th century it was the Soviet Union that showed a particular interest in the region, as demonstrated by the two military interventions in the late 1920s. Some decades later, the Soviet Union was a strong supporter of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan and offered its military help once again in what would become known as the Soviet-Afghan War. The Soviet occupation lasted for a decade, before their eventual withdrawal in 1989. From the leftover devastation and in-fighting, the Taliban regime rose.
The Taliban emerged in the Afghan city of Kandahar in the mid 90s, and quickly became an established presence during the Civil War. After a couple of years of fighting, they conquered Kabul in late 1996 and established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban government sought to establish control through law and order, following a strict interpretation of Sharia law. The international community condemned the harsh Taliban rule, which resulted in the brutal treatment of many Afghans, and especially of women. By 2001 the Taliban controlled around 90% of Afghan territory, successfully fighting off rebellions led by many opposers, most notably the Northern Alliance.
After the 9/11 attacks, the United States made their move. Mistakenly associating the Taliban government and al-Quaeda as inseparable, they opted for invasion. US and NATO troops started the invasion, and war officially started on October 7th, 2001. While the US motives were clear, NATO’s goal was to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for terrorists again. From 2003, NATO led the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which assisted the Afghan government in the exercise of its authority and provided help in the creation of the Afghan national security forces.
The developments of 2021
The US-NATO coalition quickly managed to drive the Taliban from power, and already in December 2001 ISAF was created. This security mission aided the creation of democratic structures and was also tasked with preventing the return to power of the Taliban, which soon after started insurgency through guerrilla raids and ambushes all over the country. The highest point was reached in 2007, when the Taliban took over several parts of the country and the ISAF massively increased their presence. After the killing of Osama bin Laden, NATO started planning the withdrawal of their forces. These efforts culminated only in 2020: the United States and the Taliban signed a peace deal which required the American troops to leave the country by April 2021. The withdrawal date was extended to the end of August 2021.
The Taliban initiated what would be the last major offensive of the war in May 2021. After making significant territorial gains in the countryside and conquering several regions, they turned their attention to the capital city of Kabul. The Afghan troops, lacking the support of the US and NATO could not withstand the offense and Kabul fell to the Taliban on the 15th of August. This event created much urgency to evacuate the remaining NATO personnel as well as all those who would be vulnerable to the Taliban, such as those who collaborated with NATO or with the previous governments, ethnic minorities and women. For almost two weeks, airlifts out of Kabul became the norm, and the world news reported the mass exodus from the Afghan capital.
Concerned about the return to power of the Taliban, the international community tried to ensure that the new government would uphold fundamental human rights. Despite promises that hinted that it would be done, the reality of the situation turned out to be different. The country is facing an economic crisis, trade levels have dropped and importers cannot pay for new goods. Strict punishments for criminals are being implemented. Women are being excluded from social life more and more, as well as being prohibited from going to work, unless they are employed in the medical field. Male and female students are being separated in different groups, which often leads to women not having access to education because schools do not have the infrastructure necessary to provide separate classes. Last but not least, women are required to wear hijabs. The situation is better when compared to the previous Taliban government, but many fear the situation could take a turn for the worse.
One further fear of the international community, and especially of the US, is that Taliban-controlled Afghanistan will become a safe haven for terrorists. In their opinion, less control in the region means more opportunities for terrorist groups to reconstitute and plot in a space that is much harder to collect evidence in. Despite the lack of evidence to support this hypothesis, and the explicit statement from the Taliban government that they do not intend to host such groups, the fear is that the new government will not possess enough resources to control and constrain terrorist groups while also trying to extend their own control over the country.
Avenues for potential solutions
In exploring potential solutions to the current situation in Afghanistan one thing becomes painfully clear: There are no easy solutions. Every avenue explored exposes new issues and finding a way out is necessarily tied to making certain concessions. Keeping this in mind potential avenues include, but are certainly not limited to:
Working with the Taliban
The main concern for NATO with any potential solution is ensuring a safe and stable Afghanistan that will not develop into a hive for terrorist organisations. In the light of this it might be beneficial to cooperate with the Taliban. Naturally some complications present themselves when considering working together with a former enemy of 20+ years, but this should not prevent efforts from the get go. Especially since both China and Russia have proven that they will happily (to different extents) work together with the Taliban. NATO members must ultimately way their political beliefs and considerations connecting to human rights against the collective security facing a China and Russia backed Taliban government. The west holds many bargaining chips on the diplomatic and political level and using these to NATO’s advantage might just help ease tensions as well. While international recognition is certainly the Taliban's ultimate goal, less drastic steps such as good faith meetings and humanitarian aid might be the first of many steps to security in the region.
Working with Neighbouring Countries
If NATO members should find that working with the Taliban is a non-starter, or might be an investment that will only pay dividends in the long-run, then there is also the possibility of closer regional cooperation to stifle terrorist efforts. Surrounded by Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China and Pakistan the list of potential regional partners is long, but some certainly promise more success than others. Security cooperation with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan or Pakistan could ensure that while NATO will not control what happens within Afghanistan security concerns will at least stay in Afghanistan. This solution naturally offers little solution for the women and minorities who are still stuck under a regime that will not govern in their favour and might therefore also prove a non-starter, though if combined with the first avenue could lead to some success.
Intervention
Full scale invasion, while currently unimaginable, must at least be stated as the final act of intervention NATO members will consider when dealing with Afghanistan. This option would only be worth consideration if all other options and avenues fail and the threat from a Taliban controlled Afghanistan becomes unbearable. Intervention itself then does not have to mean another full scale invasion of Afghanistan, other less extreme options can be thought of as well. Sanctions, Embargoes and similar measures can very easily cause a strong exertion of force on the Taliban. These efforts might, however, just be countered by Chinese and Russian involvement and yield little tangible results. Military options could also see the support of anti-Taliban resistance movements, such as “The anti-Taliban National Resistance Front (NRF)” or “The National Resistance Front” amongst others. The credibility of these groups, as well as their own political motivations are tricky to put it lightly, but they might prove the only effective way of exerting power within Afghanistan itself. This option, however, would starkly oppose any diplomatic efforts and potential military success must therefore be weighed against that of diplomatic efforts.
Conclusion
In conclusion then, Delegates at this NATO Council meeting will be faced with a near impossible task of determining the future strategy of NATO and its members concerning the Security Situation in Afghanistan. Innovation and thinking outside the box will therefore be key and any avenue with potential solutions will be worth exploring. Key Questions Delegates should consider for any NATO decision are:
How will any given decision affect peace and security not only in Afghanistan and surrounding countries, but also NATO territory itself?
Which options should be considered short-term and long-term and what breaking point separates the two?
Can, will and would a Taliban Government in Afghanistan ever result in a safe and peaceful security situation?
What credibility should be placed on Taliban guarantees that Afghanistan will not become a Terrorist safe haven?
At what point is military intervention no longer an option, but a necessity?
Bibliography
Draft Communique: Here
